Real GDP growth 2.5% lower than official: Ex-CEA Subramanian
India's gross domestic product growth rate has been overstated by about 2.5 percentage points per year post 2011, former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian has said in a research paper, prompting economists to doubt the size of the claimed overestimation, and the government to defend the data .
Subramanian also called for revisiting the entire methodology and implementation for GDP estimation by an independent task force, comprising national and international experts.
"....instead of reported average growth of 6.9% between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5% and 5.5%. Cumulatively, over five years, the level of GDP might have been overstated by about 9-21%," Subramanian said in his paper, published by the Center for International Development at Harvard University.
"It is just a claim in a newspaper article. There may be some overestimation, but whether the overestimation is large or not is difficult to tell," Sudipto Mundle, distinguished fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, told TOI. The new GDP methodology uses corporate data from the ministry of corporate affairs MCA-21 database, which some experts have said is flawed and needs a review.
国家应用经济研究委员会的杰出研究员Sudipto Mundle对《凤凰彩票时报》表示：“ 这只是报纸文章的说法。可能会有一些高估，但很难判断是否高估了很多。”
译文来源：凤凰彩票 /47822.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
arif • 10 hours ago
This guy is Raghurajan''s friend and he lost the job; so obviously tying to take a little revenge.
Anand Mirle • BLR • 5 hours ago
This guy Arvind Subramaniam does not know that elections are over.Opposition has not learned that those techniques haven''t worked and will not work...
Munna Bhai • Delhi • 11 hours ago
This claim made by Ex MEA officer is just a attention seeker and some cheap publicity stunt. World Bank and World financial bodies has quite streamlined process for estimating and tracking the GDP growth rate of countries specifically India and China are closely monitored by investors so World Bank data is more trusted source when it comes to GDP and that is inline with what government has published. Not sure why this EX MEA officer kept quite all this time since 2011 till now.
Lord Prosperity• 8 hours ago
World Bank and IMF estimates are not at all accurate as the govt''s number itself who have all the data while these bodies don''t. Don''t spread ignorance if you have no idea.
bhartiya singh• 8 hours ago
NOT ONLY GOVT DATA BUT DATA FROM VARIOUS INDEPENDENT INTERNAL AS WELL EXTERNAL SOURCES INCLUDING INDUSTRIES, OVERSEAS TRADE, FARM SECTORS, NGOs etc ARE COLLECTED, COLLATED AND ANALYZED BY IMF. Pls have a few understanding of IMF working independently before shooting from the hip.
Gadkari • 10 hours ago
Everything is FAKE in FEKU Government.
Nationcomesfirst• Mother INDIA • 9 hours ago
Get a job and don''t be a burden
sam mm• 9 hours ago
Govt is not having jobs to give
Naveed Khan • Naveed Khan • Chennai • 10 hours ago
Modi Government has been exaggerating GDP growth figures and under reporting Inflation
Priti Shilpa• 10 hours ago
dont talk about UPA. Gulams are hurt.
Even if you take it 2.5 less then also NDA performs better. And moreover all independent international organizations accept that Indian gdp is growing at a rate of approx 7% per year
Mujeer • 5 hours ago
If GDP IS below even 4% it means India is not a developing nation!!! The Govt must come clean on this!!! Corruption, terrorism, crime, unemployment, rise in imports, BOP is all on the rise!! where are the Ache din??? also where r the 15 lakh to every Indian promised by Mr Modi???
Jaipur • 4 hours ago
When did he promise 15 lakhs , you pro- congress , Congress appeased/pampered stooge.
Vikram • 11 hours ago
Interesting...he kept quite for 5 years and now suddenly he is speaking out..
Naveed Khan • Naveed Khan • Chennai • 11 hours ago
Every country has flawed methodology of GDP and inflation calculations. India methods are more flawed than others.
Akr• 9 hours ago
Really ! you are from Mars
Murali Raghavan • 2 hours ago
Subramaniam has no integrity. He should have told this when he was in the Government and should have resigned if his views were not accepted then. Now he is out to spoil the reputation of Modiji’s Government and this is not acceptable. His comments would please China and they may give him some assignment. Modiji should ignore his comments and not respond at all.
James George• 1 hour ago
May be he was paid until now to keep shut
Feku • 3 hours ago
Bhartiya Jhooti party has yet again been caught red handed. They are just trying to fool public by manipulating data and showing make in India and GDP growing. Ask any foreign organisations if they want to work in India, their answer will be no.
RAVINDRA DUVVURI• 5 hours ago
What was he doing as Chief Economic Adviser? Why should we believe him now?
jai hind • 5 hours ago
why did he not speak or inform the govt rather than trying to cast doubt post fact.? raises doubt about his motive.
Krishna • 7 hours ago
Just go by IMF & World Bank''s numbers.
Bobby Ganesh • Mumbai • 7 hours ago
The whole world suspected this all along and now the former Chief Economic Advisor confirms it. But its too late now all the bhakts who blindly believed BJP/RSS’s nonstop lies have voted them back. Only God Shiva can save India from these lunatics now
thiruMumbai • 8 hours ago
Economy is in bad situation under modi,
Chander • 1 hour ago
GDP figures are just a measurement. Even if it shows 20% growth but If the public doesn't see any improvement on the ground, it is meaningless. But if the public sees real improvement in their lives, then even 7% growth is good.
Jnknws • Timbaktu • 2 hours ago
The moot point is why he did not raise this when he was with the govt for almost 3 years? In fact he was defending these numbers then. So what changed now and who set him up? He needs to come clean.